Rangers Review...10 Games in (Part 1 - 5v5)

Based on Watching the Games, it seems like the Rangers are playing better than last season. While the 2015/16 team started 6-2-1-1 in its first ten games, I think the conventional wisdom was that the team was being outplayed, but riding a hot start from the normally slow-starting Lundqvist. The 2016/16 team has started out 7-3, and I'd bet the CW is the opposite - this is a strong team mostly outplaying the opposition, and the skaters performance is overcoming a slow start by Lundqvist. 

Read More

Puck Dummy...

Wyshynski got into it on twitter dot com today (with people dumb enough to follow him) about Matt Murray's "case" for being named the Conn Smythe winner if the Penguins win. [UPDATED to reflect post Game 5 stats]

To be fair to Wyshynski (I just threw up in my mouth a little), he's not making this the hill he wants to die on, but he does say that Murray has the "best" case.  He poo-poos (legal term of art) the fact that the Pens have routinely dominated their opponents in this Cup playoffs.

This is a list of the last 10 Stanley Cup champions, their total shots +/-, and their all-situations shots-for% for that playoff year.  [Updated through Game 5]

That 2008 Red Wings team was unreal, but the 2016 Penguins are sitting comfortably in in 2nd place.  Wyshynski can call out any intangible he wants, but Murray has been basically an average-to-good goaltender - and that's all he's needed to be.  Cool, he gets "points" for being a rookie and not, I dont know, pooping his pants every game?  But this is a dominant Pittsburgh and smart award voters should recognize that.  

By the way, as of the time I write this, the Pens are out-shooting the Sharks 26-13 in Game 5.

UPDATE:  Wyshynski is sad that I "cherry picked" his tweets.  

I'm admittedly an idiot, but I don't see how this helps the overall argument that Murray has been the MVP of the entire playoffs.  He was good against the Caps, and maybe that was the key factor in them advancing. But

Again, Murray has been good. He may have been CAPITAL LETTERS GREAT against the Caps.  But he hasn't been the MVP by any "case".  Unless, of course, you place a lot of weight on goalies who win above all else.

UPDATE 2:  

Again I'm right in my analysis.

Patrick Kane #s, Updated

A month ago, I took a look at how Patrick Kane's season stacked up compared to his peers - specifically the other Top 20 scoring forwards at that time.  I generally focused on offensive possession metrics (corsi, shots, and expected goals) because Kane has led the NHL in points scoring from the start, and I wanted to see if there was some way to really see if Kane was having the "outstanding" season people those points suggested.  At the time, I saw that Kane was individually producing a lot of offensive attempts, and was getting favorable shooting percentages while on the ice.  I also saw that his possession rates were in the middle of the pack, and that he was routinely at the bottom of the list in relative rates.  Not only was he not outperforming his teammates compared to his Top 20 scoring peers - he was actually under-performing compared to his team itself.

Time for an update...

Read More

IT ME, PLAYOFF D

Anyone following the NYR season knows that the NYR are having a terrible defensive season, by #fancystats metrics, at least.  As of today, the NYR are 20th in Score-Adjusted 5v5 CorsiFor% in the entire league.  I think it's pretty well accepted now that good puck possession teams are better bets for playoff success.

I've also spent a fair amount of time marveling at the NYR's defensemen's possession results specifically, and, as I've tweeted before, they are bad, bad, and not good.  So I thought it would be fun to see how the NYR defensemen's current Score-Adjusted 5v5 CorsiFor% measured up to other playoff teams in the BtN era...

Read More