In Part 1, I looked at the NYR first 10 games, from a 5v5 perspective. Now let's check out the PP (5v4) and PK (4v5) results. To my eyes, both the PP and the PK are completely transformed from last season - but unfortunately there's not a lot to analyze without getting more granular microdata and video.
Again, all info from Corsica.Hockey, except these numbers are not adjusted. General reminder - since there will be less time spent in PP/PK than 5v5, the value in these numbers from a predictive basis is probably zilch. Same note: negative numbers are in red, but not necessarily bad, because for "against" stats a decrease is good.
Before we dive in, let's just marvel at the actual NYR results so far on both the PP and the PK. Getting a lot and not giving up much.
Corrected: PP/PK Success (only change is line colors, data was correct) pic.twitter.com/7kHUsKH1uD
— Carolyn Wilke (@Classlicity) November 2, 2016
5v4 POWER PLAY
We immediately see that the NYR have improved in taking shots, and not giving up shorthanded shots. I dont know what was going on with last season's PP early (*cough NoYandlecough*), but getting only 80-83% (4 out of 5, basically) of shot attempts on a PP seems to be terrible. The worst team by that metric last year was 86.31%, and the NYR, as bad as they were on the PK, were at 88.99% for the entire season. The current 105.05 CF60, by the way, is 5th in the league so far.
Since there's less to talk about here, I'll put some of these charts together. Again, a big jump from last season's (likely terrible) PP rates to this season. But while the improvement may be explained more by how bad last season's PP start was, these 2016 results are still Top 10 so far.
Ultimate "SSS" warning here, but I'll take 11.5 rebound shots per 60 (2016) over 2.9 per 60 (2.9) any day. I'd guess that's a result of using Zibanejad and Pirri as the prime shooters.
The obvious improvement in xGF/60 and GF/60 stand out. Again the NYR are at the top of the league so far - a full 1 xGF/60 more than 2nd place SJ. Shooting% year over year isn't significantly better either, so they may actually not be getting the goals they "deserve."
Unlike at 5v5, I'm ignoring zone starts and finishes, penalties, and giveaways/takeaways. There's just not enough there to be interesting in my opinion.
So, based on this real quick look, it seems the PP really has improved. While the level of improvement might look inflated due to the terrible results of early 2015, the NYR are still near the top of the league in these categories so far.
One exciting thing this season - the work that Josh Khalfin and Shawn Ferris are doing with the MICRO project. They tracked some of the early NYR PPs, and this will lead to some useful data about *how* the NYR are getting these results. If you can, help them track.
Based solely on what I've watched, it seems the NYR entry plays are waaaay more intelligent and successful than last year. Hopefully someone can get some time to do some video analysis of that part of the game, because I think it would show some real improved passing and resulting zone time.
4v5 PENALTY KILL
Similar to the PP, we see improvement across the board - and the NYR near the top of the league so far in 2016. (2nd in CA60; 1st in FA60).
Not surprisingly, shots on goal and scoring chances follow Corsi/Fenwick. NYR are 1st in SA60, 1st in SF60, 1st in SCA60, and 4th in SCF60. Cutting their SCA60 in half seems like a good thing! I can't think of a bigger surprise from this early part of the season. Another fun fact - the NYR are the only team with a single digit SC+/- in the league (-4). Ottawa is next at -12, in one less game.
Nothing. As in "the NYR are giving up nothing", and "I have nothing to say about it."
Considering how little the NYR are giving up in scoring chances against specifically, I think you can see how the low save%, really impacts the goals against on the PK. The NYR have cut their xG/xG60 in half from last season - but their actual goals against is basically the same (in fact slightly increased). That said, the 85.71 sv% isn't far off Hank's recent norm (between 84% and 89% since the lockout), so it might not be fair to expect much more if Hank rebounds (HEY NOW) into his "normal" form.
What the heck was going on last season...basically drawing 1 penalty a game while shorthanded? Do more of that.
Much like the 5v4 results - I think it's clear that the NYR have dramatically improved their PK, and, hopefully, that continues to be the case while the goaltending improves. Whether this is due to a new system, or just a good stretch of luck, I think we all know the answer: #HayesForSelke.
...Again I'm right in my analysis.